The recent prediction I made on the movement of the S&P 500, which represents the U.S. Market in Jan in 2022 is posted here.
My prediction was having a major correction or the beginning of a bear after topping in Dec. 2021 and declining toward 3/21/2022. This was predicted based on the mathematical sequences. I was not sure what would be the cause to bring down the market, however, I predicted it to decline. What I knew was the extreme movement of various markets. it was an obvious sign. On top of that, I knew that the ascending movements among many other markets were not sustainable to keep up. The S&P500 market was becoming fragile because of the stimulus checks and covid 19, having almost 10 % of inflation annually, overvalued real estate, and high prices in consuming products and commodities (Nickel, Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton, Lumber, Oil, Gasoline are UP and UP) due to the shortage of supply and etc. I predicted the timing hitting the top to be after the Santa Clause rally and January effects, and then the market would be making a correction.
The image below is the predicted movement.
This date 3/24/2022, this is what happened.
The market started tumbling as I expected after topping at $479 on 1/4/2022 and kept on declining. It made a few rebounds, however, the price went down to $410. over 15 % dropped from the all-time high. Guess what, the day that hit the bottom was 3/14/2022, which was 5 days earlier than I expected but it is close enough to 3/21/2022, equinox. I rather apply Physics to the market than Mathematics to predict the movement of the market, so +/- 7 days is still considered accurate. There was a well-known trader who was able to predict exact time & price in the past months and/ or year in advance. If this were true, my prediction could improve further and become more sophisticated. It is good enough but not good enough to play without risk management yet.
At the end of February, I realized "the cause". I was wondering about the cause at the beginning of Jan. The cause that brings down the market. Now I know it is the war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This seems to have been the cause of the tension in the market. It is almost impossible to time the cause and movement of the market and play with the market to get profits since the market is efficient. No matter how fast you react to the economic event, that would be too late. However, my theory based on mathematic sequences to predict the market still allows me to predict and provide me enough time to make a transaction.
