The Beginning Of Bear

The safest trading is not to bet against the odds. The shortest and safest way to profit from your trading is to switch your mindset from Bull to Bear now. Probably shorting any overvalued stocks that jumped up quickly will bring you profits. Now is the phase of the beginning of BEAR. This is not a correction of BULL. We are entering BEAR.

Rationalization kicks in once people start losing their money because they cannot be optimistic anymore. They cannot play the adrenaline games anymore. Micro and small-cap stocks hit the peak around March in 2021 including energy stocks. GME, AMC, TSLA, and all other stocks collected an unbelievable amount of capital within a short period of time since 2020. This was the most profitable period of time and an insanity time to be cautious. However, many people didn't recognize the market characteristic. The market heat attracted many people and collected a number of investors' and traders' attention even amateur traders due to the way of thinking that you can make money quickly like a lottery and become rich. Fast price movement and optimistic energy fooled people and stop them from thinking rationally and became sheep like any other to follow the herd.  This is the end of the bull. It is topping the market. The correct attitude is not to put more money into the market to bring down the purchase price instead you need to start pulling money out of the market to protect your capital including the buy-and-hold investors.

For example, let me remind you how crazy it was to think that people valued TSLA $1,388,400,000,000 (1,157,000,000 Outstanding shares x $1200 = $1,388,400,000,000) even though the annual revenue was less than 50 Bil. TSLA capital was more than double of the capital of all the automobile corps together. Of course, EV is a trend, however, the trend is temporary it is not permanent. The price is driven by speculation, not value itself. TSLA price should be finding the fair price value eventually.

I started shorting TSLA since Dec 2020. It took a longer than a year for the stock price to start becoming rational. My original prediction was hitting $880 and turns around. I shorted it down to $600 from $880. The price actually hit $900 but it was close enough. It did almost exactly what I expected. I would like to give myself 95% on the time and price prediction. The price went down from $900 to $576. My bid was to take profits by shorting between $880 to $600 as I mentioned on the Facebook post. Afterward, It came back up to $1200. It didn't go up to $1400 as I expected but I verified later that the time is up to go down around $1200. Here is the prediction I made in December 2020.

TSLA Prediction Jan. 2021