Our economy is OVERDUE for a recession.
The chart indicates that hitting the 10 year treasure - 3 month treasury maturity at 0%, almost always suggests a recession occurred in the past. Now it is way below 0 % and ready to pop!
-November 1973 – March 1975 (1 year 4 months)
Oil shock
-July 1981– November 1982 (1 year 4 months)
Oil shock+ Energy Crisis + Inflation
-July 1990 – March 1991 (8 months)
Inflation + Debt Accumulation
-March 2001 – November 2001 (8 months)
Dot-com recession
-December 2007 – June 2009 (1 year 6 months)
Subprime mortgage crisis Great Recession
-2024 ??
Oil shocking + Inflation + Housing + Debt Accumulation
Our current economy seems to have all the causes of previous recessions lined up. You don't believe nothing is going to happen?
In my opinion, It does not matter who will be the U.S. president in 2025, a recession has to happen. It will happen soon. What interests me the most before the market pops is that it moves up rapidly to a large degree in a short period and booms. This movement can be seen almost every time right before a bull ends.
<The shaded areas are deep recessions>
